The Tech Pullback May Already Be Done

Tech discovery in Baltimore has slowed since July 4th. Quite possible.

There were more than 8,000 job openings at Baltimore tech companies as of July 5, according to the Tech Economic Dashboard, which compiles listings from various sources. Seven days later, their number approached 6,000, which is 25% less than in a week. Other regions also experienced a decline during this period.

The sell-off in the tech sector slowed down when layoffs in the tech sector began last spring, a welcome period of cooling after two years of banana farming (but this has happened before). Despite the slowdown that Technical.ly first reported in April, tech recruiters are still having a hard time finding jobs. And while employers say conditions are less competitive now than they were during the busier times of early 2022, little has changed over the summer. While it sounds bleak, let's look at the rosy picture: Jobs have fallen as the overheated economy slows, while tech jobs as a whole have not slowed due to overreaction.

Take a look at the latest tech employment data. Despite another month of decline, the US economy employed about 3,074,000 high-tech workers in July, according to new projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (to be reviewed later). That's 55,000 less than last November's peak, but still more than May last year and well above the pre-pandemic trend line. Most of the technical teams have reduced the number of vacancies instead of cutting them even more.

Concerns about a slowdown in the economy remain, but it seems to be more important for macroeconomic policymakers than hiring executives.

For those building tech teams, we may have just completed a technology rollback. Our tech economy panel shows that about half of the top 20 companies with the most available tech jobs in each of our markets (Baltimore, D.C., Delaware, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh) had more jobs than last month. Denver and Atlanta too. And in Baltimore, two-thirds of the companies with the most tech job openings in the region have increased their job postings in the past 30 days.

What is the score? We have spent 18 months predicting a recession that will never happen. It will happen sooner or later (it always does), but if you're building something, get to work.

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