Shooting For Eight

Main results:

• Markets are gearing up for an eighth week of gains.
• The PCE index came in weaker than expected
• Durable goods before forecasts

Shares have risen for eight consecutive weeks, not since 2017. The S&P 500 rose 0.58% for the week on Friday, leading all eleven sectors after a 1% jump on Thursday. . The Nasdaq Composite is up 1% this week after a 1.3% gain on Thursday. We'll see if today's Durable Goods and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) reports end or continue.

Before Friday's data, economists had expected the core PCE index to rise 0.2% from last month. The actual indicator was 0.1%. Compared to the same period last year, this index was expected to be 3.3%, but it was 3.2%. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, and these numbers indicate that inflation has continued to decline. However, the durable goods report may grab the headlines today.

Last month, durable goods rose by a surprising 5.4%, compared to forecasts of 1.7%. The headline figure rose 0.5%, ahead of the 0.2% forecast. There is a caveat regarding the 5.4 percent indicator. Last month, this indicator decreased by 5.1 percent. I think a few big buys have moved back and forth a bit this month.

Investors hoping for a Santa rally got a big boost from the recent rally. Going back to 1972, the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year were positive for stocks, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. In fact, according to the Wall Street Journal, the past seven years have been positive. What I find particularly encouraging about this year's rally is the broadening of the base of participating stocks. Most of this year's profits came from The Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon). AMZN: , Apple APL: , Meta, Microsoft MSFT: , Nvidia and Tesla TSLA ), but there have been many developments in recent weeks. The Russell 2000 is up more than 20% since late October, reflecting broad participation in the rally.

One of the main reasons for the year-end rally was the interest rate forecast. As the market expects several price cuts in 2024, price-sensitive companies are on the rise, especially in the technology sector. The Nasdaq composite has rallied nearly 20% in the past two months alone, possibly as early as March, as the Fed's talk shifted toward "longer-term" rate tapering. The 10-year bond closed below 3.9% after those talks rose more than 5% in October.

Looking at individual stocks this morning, Nike shares NK 11% less in premarket jobs. After the close on Thursday, the company reported results and a pessimistic outlook. Nike said it expects sales to fall and plans to cut costs by $2 billion. The news sent Foot Locker shares down 10 percent in premarket trading. The outlook for retail sales is a bit bleak at the moment. Here, we see long-term bearish positions in stocks like FedEx in an interesting trade. FDKS: and CBS. Both companies became derivatives of the retail market.

US Steel shares are down 5 percent since Monday. Japan's Nippon Steel has announced that it will buy the American company for $55 per share. However, the Biden administration and legislative team are calling for a closer look at the deal. Also earlier today, Bristol Myers announced it will buy Caruna Therapeutics for $14 billion. This is a more than 45% gain in the price of Corona on Thursday.

Looking at today's trading, I expect the PCE and Durable Goods numbers to produce morning activity this morning, but I wouldn't be surprised if the volume drops quickly before Christmas. I expect the volume to be lower next week. That doesn't mean the markets can't talk a little, and as I mentioned earlier, when things are quiet, a little history can suddenly become important.

Finally, I would like to take a moment to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. I'm going on vacation next week, but I'll be back after the start of the new year. I hope you find time to spend with your family and loved ones next week.

Sweet Business, Inc. Comments for educational purposes only. This content is not, and is not intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any product or investment strategy is suitable for anyone.

Mass shooting at a Texas mall. 8 people died.