Ukraine Situation Report: The Bloody Battle For Bakhmut

More than 450 years after Ivan the Terrible was established by the Russian Tsar as the front line of defense against the Crimean Tatars, Bakhmut has become the bloodiest battleground in Vladimir Putin's nine-month war with Ukraine.

Located on the banks of the Bakhmutovka River in the Donetsk region, the densely populated city of 70,000 is now a nearly ruined ironclad. Soldiers on both sides digging trenches in what was once farmland, evoke memories of World War I.

Pictures emerged over the weekend of the horrific conditions in which soldiers sit in puddles of mud and stagnant water in freezing weather.

The waves of the Wagner Group's mercenaries, supported by massive reserves, are diminishing and they are moving towards the Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainian defenders and other civilians suffer heavy casualties, under pressure on both sides by advancing Russian forces and under constant bombardment.

Gains on both sides are minimal, measured in metres. After months of onslaught, Ukrainian forces are being clamped down, though Russian forces appear to be making progress.

"Bakhmut is only their desire, and they have been trying to make it happen for eight months," the Ukrainian general said. Gen. Kirlo Budanov, head of the country's Defense Intelligence Agency, told The War Zone last month. "From a military point of view, Bakhmut has a very favorable location, being close to cities such as Slaviansk [about 20 kilometers northwest], Kramtorsk [about five miles south of Slaviansk] and Chasov Yar [about five miles southwest] from [the] open [Bakhmut]"

But with Russian losses of territory, personnel, and equipment elsewhere in Ukraine, the ongoing offensive against Pakhmo raises many questions about whether Moscow is paying the high costs. Especially considering that Ukraine has the advantage of being a better equipped and trained defender.

"The Russian military still faces real political demands to show progress," Michael Kaufman, director of Russian research at the CNA Research Institute in Arlington, Virginia, told The New York Times . "But [but] with the low quality of available forces and fewer artillery ammunition reserves, they are unlikely to succeed, and once again the Russian army appears to be feeding off fractional units without proper support."

The attack destroys both sides, each of which invests additional resources. The hollowing out of Ukraine is one of Russia's potential goals.

"Battles like Bakhmut absorb forces that could be used elsewhere," Kaufman told the Times , adding that Russian forces use people they consider "suspicious" but still can't use as much artillery.

There may be other reasons for settling in Bakhmut.

It was a project for the Wagner Group's failed attempt to take control of the city, The Guardian said Monday, with the first victory in Putin's inner circle as a way to boost the image of the mercenary group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin.

However, the uphill battle does not stop there.

Before moving on to today's news from Ukraine, Warzone readers can watch our previous live coverage here.

According to a Reuters report, the Pentagon is considering Boeing's proposal to send ground-launched small diameter bombs, or GLSDBs, to Ukraine. You can read more about this weapon and its potential impact in our report here.

"[We] will support Ukraine as long as it needs it," he said. "In the coming year we will maintain or increase our military support. And we will provide new air defense support to protect the people of Ukraine and the critical infrastructure that depends on them. By protecting Ukraine, we are protecting ourselves."

Kyiv received visits from the foreign ministers of Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden.

Ukraine's efforts to retake the Kinburn Spit, a narrow strip of land leading to the Black Sea and Russia's last stronghold in Mykolaiv Oblast, are continuing, according to Natalya Ghomnyo, a spokeswoman for Ukraine's Southern Operations Command.

Among other things, he said that the operation depends on weather conditions, broadcast by Telegram United 24 channel.

"There are several factors that must be taken into account and we must wait for official information from the General Staff," he said. "Only they can tell you what's really going on and when you can really have fun." You can read more about this process here.

On the battlefield, after withdrawing across the Dnieper River, Russian forces continue to kill civilians in the city of Kherson, as well as in the Donetsk, Dubrovsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhia regions. In addition to defending against the Russians at the Battle of Bakhmut in Donetsk, Ukraine is launching a counteroffensive in Luhansk. Here are some key takeaways from the Institute for the Study of War's latest assessment.

• The Russian army is creating conditions for a long-term defense in the eastern part of the Kherson region, which could allow for a strong Ukrainian base on the eastern bank of the Dnieper. The assessment below shows Russia's defense design and assesses the operational flow expectations that only such design can dictate.
• The Ukrainian General Staff said that Russian officials are preparing for another wave of covert mobilization, starting on December 10 in the Russian Federation and Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine.
• Russia's Milogars sharply criticized Russia's Federal Customs Service for customs delays and a voluntary move to seize dual-use goods sent to the Russian military.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces were conducting defensive operations in the Kobyansk region, on the Svato-Kremennaya line in Luhansk, and were launching offensives west of Kremenya.
• Russian sources report that Ukrainian forces continue their attacks on Sviatovo and Krymenaya.
• Russian forces continue their offensive in the Avdiivka area. The Ukrainian General Staff did not say that Ukrainian forces repulsed any ground attacks around Bakhmut on 27 November, which indicates that Russian forces were advancing in the area.
• Russian forces attacked the Dnieper, Krivoy Rog and Zaporozhye.
• The Russian occupation authorities continued forcibly transferring Ukrainian children from the occupied Luhansk region to Russia under the pretext that the children needed special medical care.

The Battle of Bakhmut, in which both sides exchanged heavy artillery bombardments, highlighted the uncertainty of that long war.

In addition to the shortage of ammunition on both sides, Ukraine also faces the challenge of keeping the shells working. According to the New York Times , a third of the 350 missiles delivered to Ukraine are inoperable at any given time.

“Ukrainian forces launch thousands of IEDs at Russian targets every day, using high-tech weapons provided by the United States and its allies. They were taken from the battlefield for repairs, according to American and Ukrainian officials.

Continuous Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy and water infrastructure have made providing electricity to citizens problematic. The Kyiv Independent reported that power outages resumed across the country on Monday.

Kyiv was hit particularly hard, with electricity only turned on twice a day during periods of limited power savings.

The prevalence of blackouts across Ukraine is particularly visible from space.

As a result of these attacks, negotiations are underway between Germany, Poland and NATO to transfer the German-supplied Patriot air defense system from Poland's border with Ukraine to Ukraine.

Germany said on Friday that it is discussing with its allies a request to send German Patriot air defense units to Ukraine, after NATO leaders hinted the military alliance might not oppose such a move, Reuters reported.

"We are discussing with our allies how to respond to the Polish proposal," a German government spokesman told reporters in Berlin.

Berlin offered Warsaw the Patriot system to secure its airspace after a stray missile crashed in Poland earlier this month, killing two people. You can read more about it here.

Russia also deploys air defenses in Belarus, a client state on Ukraine's northern border.

The Belarusian Khion Telegram channel reported that “at least 15 Tor-M2 anti-aircraft missile systems have been sent from Russia to Belarus.” A whole train of them left the Yeisk railway station in Russia's Krasnodar region on November 25 and headed for Lesnaya station in Brest, Belarus.

In an effort to suppress Ukrainian air defences, Russia reportedly continued firing AS-15 Kent nuclear missiles into Ukraine. Instead of nuclear warheads, they carry the same weight as ballast. You can read more about this effort in our previous report here.

According to the combat report , a train of Russian T-80-U tanks in winter camouflage was advancing.

However, Russia's Telegram channel has expressed concerns about the disruption of the supply chain from China to Russia on the Usuriyskoye highway.

But the Russian An-124 Ruslan appears to be making 10 flights a week between Russia and China.

"The normal flight runs along the Moscow-Novosibirsk-Zhengzhou-Novosibirsk-Moscow route," reports the Defense Express website. “The final destination of the trip was Urumqi. In general, Zhengzhou is a strong logistics and industrial center and a powerful high-tech industrial zone, which includes divisions of the Chinese defense giant Norinco. Urumqi is a production center for many giant industries.”

“Such regular flights, especially with the An-124 Ruslan, with broken transponders, as well as posts on Chinese social networks, allow us to conclude that the Russian Federation is sending planes for military cargo. Moreover, now urgently. I can't wait by rail. iron when it is delivered

We've reached out to Ukrainian officials, the Pentagon, and the National Security Council to find out what shipments China is sending to Russia. We will report any feedback you provide.

Meanwhile, the Russians are training soldiers and volunteers to lead the fuel flotilla.

Apparently, the gesture didn't go over well with mothers who passed away on Mother's Day in Russia, and gifts of towels and cards weren't appreciated.

Russia's integral reserves, which had long complained of a lack of adequate equipment and training, apparently learned the art of war...from amateur aviation.

Real weapons stolen during Russia's military operations in Ukraine are wreaking havoc at home.

Photos of a Russian Su-34 allegedly shot down in the Kherson region have appeared on social media.

According to Guy Plopsky, the Defender belongs to the 47th Bomber Aviation Regiment and was shown in a 2016 Russian Defense Ministry video taking off from Khmineim Air Base in Syria armed with Kh-35U missiles.

Contrary to reports by the Ukrainian nuclear power company Energoatom, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied that Russia had seized the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant - the largest in Europe - in the wake of an all-out attack by Moscow.

The MARS II launches the M142 Highly Mobility Missile System, or HIMARS, a multiple launch guided missile system that even Ukraine would laugh at.

Ukraine is also successfully using captured equipment, in this case the former Russian MT-12 рапира anti-tank weapon.

What was once a Russian T-80 tank is now a pile of metal rubble.

The video, which Muslims will find deeply offensive, shows the Ukrainian military using live ammunition against forces supporting Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov.

During this conflict, the rivers acted as a defensive barrier and the attempt to cross them played a major role for both sides, destroying every bridge. Both sides worked to cross the river by alternative means, including pontoon bridges. The video below shows how the Ukrainian military is building a pontoon bridge over the Инхулетс River in Даривка, Kherson Region.

Despite Russia's ongoing difficulties in Ukraine, its proponents remain full of bragging rights, with at least one expert touting the idea that Russia will one day swallow its neighbors into "one big Russian house".

Former American porn star Sasha Gray appears to be back in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

A photoshopped image of him appears to have come from a Russian conscription campaign.

It's not clear if this was an actual effort or someone's prank, but Gray isn't enjoying it.

This was not the first time that Greece had been drawn into battle.

We will update this story if there is anything important to add until the new update is released.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Russian forces surrendered when Ukrainian forces advanced to attack Kherson